Toto Wolff and Jonathan Wheatley gave their thoughts on the odds of Max Verstappen surging to a surprise fifth consecutive title after the Red Bull driver stormed to victory at the F1 US GP.
With just five rounds left in the 2025 Formula 1 season, the fight for the title has been blown wide open.
Just a few months ago, the idea of including Verstappen in the Drivers’ title conversation seemed wishful at best. Although the Dutchman continued to deliver solid individual performances, the RB21 lacked the consistency and competitiveness to match McLaren’s early-season dominance.
However, the RB21 has undergone significant development since then. While many teams have switched focus to starting over under new regulations in 2026, Red Bull—under new management—responded to Verstappen’s critiques and pressed on with car development.
Why Verstappen has the “psychological advantage”
Verstappen claimed his third win in four races at the F1 US GP in Austin. He now trails championship leader Oscar Piastri by 40 points and sits just 26 points adrift of second-placed Lando Norris.
While Piastri still holds the mathematical edge, Wolff believes the mental momentum is now tilting in Verstappen’s favour.
Speaking in Austin, the Mercedes team boss pointed out that Verstappen, having emerged as this season’s unexpected “underdog,” is free of the pressure that comes with chasing a title, particularly a maiden one—unlike the McLaren duo.
“I’ve been in a similar situation with two drivers fighting for a championship, and the threat of another one catching. Back in the day it was Max, I believe, and then it was Sebastian [Vettel] in that hunt,” Wolff recalled.
“So the underdog always has a little bit of an easier… of a psychological advantage because of the probability,” he continued. “The odds are definitely against Max. I don’t know, I’ve calculated it before, but it’s 19% or 21%, something along those lines. If you look at the probability, that’s very low. One DNF can change everything, and I think that affects the driving also.
“How aggressive can you actually go for an overtake? You can see with Lando [Norris] today, he’s done it at the end but it was tricky at times to decide whether you keep your nose, put your nose in, or not.”
Wolff full of praise for Verstappen’s brilliance
Since Zandvoort, Verstappen has finished no lower than second. Meanwhile, McLaren’s previously tight grip on the championship has begun to loosen, with both Piastri and Norris dropping valuable points after a series of underwhelming and at times downright disastrous—race weekends.
Wolff, who earlier this year attempted to lure Verstappen to Mercedes before confirming an unchanged 2026 line-up, praised both the driver and the team for their impressive comeback.
“I think Max is great, but I wouldn’t be able to see whether anybody, any other driver can [close the gap to the top two so quickly],” Wolff said. “They’ve just turned the car around, and that car is the most competitive at the moment, and he’s scoring the big points. He’s as good as it gets as a driver.”
Wheatley: “As long as it’s numerically possible, it’s possible”
Jonathan Wheatley, who worked closely with Verstappen during his time as Red Bull’s sporting director, knows first-hand what the Dutch driver can deliver when satisfied with the performance of his car.
On Red Bull’s late-season resurgence, the current Sauber team principal, “I get it, because they were also not competitive. They were competitive, of course, more competitive than we were in those races, but not as competitive as the McLaren were.”
Wheatley admitted that a potential WDC upset is a long shot, but added that Verstappen remains one to watch for the remainder of the season.
“The truth is, as long as it’s numerically possible—and this is how we race—as long as it’s numerically possible, then it’s possible. Is it probable? Not normally.
“But Max tends to rewrite the rules to suit himself and has done his whole career.”
