4 rounds remain and 3 drivers are with a shot for the 2025 F1 championship. Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen are covered by 36 points ahead of the São Paulo GP next weekend.
The Pit Debrief team makes a case for each driver as to who will win the Drivers’ Championship.
Lando Norris — Chloe Meehan
Lando Norris will win the 2025 F1 Drivers’ World Championship. With only 4 races to go, Norris sits at the top of the leader board. Whilst his lead may only be 1 point, multiple factors point in his favour.
There is no denying that McLaren has had the fastest car on the grid this year. This has caused the two drivers to be very close in performance across the season. However, for the first time since the Saudi Arabia GP, Norris has the advantage over his teammate Oscar Piastri. There are two factors that have led to this. The first is that Norris has stepped up to the challenge over the last few races. Since the British GP, there have only been two occasions where Norris did not stand on the podium. One of these was due to a mechanical error which ended his race early at Zandvoort. His recent form suggests that he is truly locked into the championship battle.
On the other hand, Piastri seems to be struggling in recent times. A DNF at the Azerbaijan GP allowed Norris to make some ground on the Australian. On top of this, Piastri had a difficult weekend at the Mexico City GP. Norris was able to capitalise on this advantage by driving the perfect race. If this form is to continue, Norris can create a gap at the top of the table.
Norris also has the advantage over Piastri in that he has been in a championship fight before. Last year, during the 2024 season, Norris was the closest contender to Verstappen for the title. Whilst he may have lost out, he learned valuable lessons about fighting for the championship. He also understood the pressure that it brings. Piastri is only in his third season of Formula 1. Whilst he has fought for championships in the feeder series, he is still relatively new to Formula 1. This could play in Norris’s favor.
As it stands, Norris’ points advantage is minimal to Piastri. However, he is 36 points ahead of Max Verstappen. There is an advantage in not being the chasing party. By sitting at the top of the table, Norris does not need to worry about what the other drivers are doing. Instead, he can run his own race. If he can focus on what he needs to do, he can tune out the noise of how Verstappen and Piastri are doing.
All Norris needs to do is come home ahead of the two drivers, and the championship is his. He doesn’t need to rely on them having a DNF or a bad race. The only person he needs to focus on is himself. This gives him a huge psychological advantage over the others.
There are only four races left of the season: Sao Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Within those remaining, three of the tracks heavily favour McLaren’s strengths.
The Sao Paulo, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi GPs are all held at tracks that play into the McLaren’s strengths. If Norris can qualify on pole at these events, he should not have any difficulty holding on to the lead for the race. For many of the races throughout the year, qualifying has proven to be an important factor in securing the race win.
Norris has proven that, when he has the lead of the race, he can pull away and control the race. At the Mexico City GP, Norris won by a 30-second margin over Verstappen in P2. By combining Norris’s ability to qualify well, as well as the track advantage, he may take the victory without too many battles on the track. This removes the risk of having to go wheel-to-wheel, further advantaging him in the championship fight.
Oscar Piastri — Ewout Albrecht
A worrisome 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix meant Oscar Piastri had to leave the top spot in the F1 drivers’ championship to his team mate Lando Norris. That is for the first time since the Bahrain Grand Prix, albeit by just one point.
But all is not lost for the young Ozzy. While it may be tempting to look at the possible comeback of Max Verstappen, Piastri should do what he does best: not giving a damn and drive fast.
And during the first half of the season that is exactly what he did. Winning seven times, including three in a row from Bahrain to Miami proves he is the best driver this season. This is underlined by the fact he has led the most laps this season. So on paper there should be very little for Piastri to worry about.
Of course, the recent struggles have given the upper hand to Norris. But the margin is very slim, and the McLaren is still a very quick car, proven by the fact that the team managed to secure the constructors’ title in Singapore already.
As for the rest of the schedule: people tend to highlight that Piastri has failed to deliver results on these tracks last year. But neither did Norris. The young Briton did win in Abu Dhabi but faltered in São Paulo and Qatar.
The latter track is one that seems to suit Piastri. He managed to outperform Norris there in the last two years. As the race in Baku proved, past results aren’t a guarantee for this year. Piastri won in 2024 with a brilliant pass on Leclerc, where this year he only found the barriers in turn 5. So the fact he performed poorly in the final four races of 2024 does not say anything about 2025.
Things change quickly in F1 in the year 2025. Red Bull have swung from a dominant force since Monza to a struggling mess in Mexico City, and McLaren suddenly have found their former selves again. This should give Piastri the confidence to put the struggles of Baku and Mexico City behind him and focus on the races ahead, where his only task should be to beat Norris, something he is more than capable of.
Personally, I think Piastri is the more naturally gifted of the two McLaren drivers. Add to that a typically unbothered personality, and the young lad from Melbourne should have the upper hand in the remaining events. Last year proved his team mate is prone to errors when put under pressure. Therefore Piastri should use his calm and composed demeanour as an extra tool in the title battle. It will be close, it will be tense, but I’m convinced “Advance Australia Fair” will triumph over “God Save the King” in the end.
Max Verstappen — Luke Jones
As of the conclusion of the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix, the standings tell a dramatic story. Lando Norris has surged into the championship lead with 357 points, with his teammate Oscar Piastri just behind on 356, while reigning champion Max Verstappen sits in third with 321 points, a gap of 36 points to the lead and a deficit of 35 to Piastri.
Despite that deficit, the statistical ground beneath Verstappen suggests the fight is far from over.
Verstappen’s 2025 season record further underscores his credentials: according to recent data, he has secured 5 race wins, has been on the podium 11 times, and claimed 7 pole positions.That pace alone is significant: in a season where his two primary rivals clearly lead in points, his ability to extract maximum weekend returns shifts the narrative from deficit to potential upside.
In Mexico City, his third-place finish – despite qualifying fifth and battling tyre and balance issues – helped him claw back ground when others faltered. With four Grand Prix weekends left, two of which are sprints, (worth up to 120 points) he still sits within realistic reach.
Verstappen brings four world titles and an enviable record of turning weekends into points hauls rather than just strong laps. Such pedigree shapes not only how he extends momentum but also how he exploits rivals under pressure. With Norris and Piastri now carrying the lead, the psychological dynamic flips, the hunted becomes the hunter. Moreover, his number of pole positions and podium frequency reflect raw speed that is still elite. While McLaren has led numerically, the promise of a fifth consecutive title is still with Verstappen’s performance.
A 36-point gap with four grands prix remaining is not small. Reliability, strategy lapses or a single non-finish would deal a severe blow. Additionally, McLaren appear strong across both drivers.
Yet, with the stats showing his pace and remaining points available high, the scenario tilts interestingly. If he strings together pole positions, victories, and fastest laps, while his rivals drop even single points, the gap could vanish. He doesn’t just have to match Norris or Piastri, he must beat them weekend after weekend.
Looking ahead, the remaining four tracks, São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, are all circuits where Max Verstappen excelled last season. He dominated in Brazil, taking both the Sprint and Grand Prix wins with commanding pace. In Vegas, Verstappen finished ahead of both McLarens in 5th to clinch the 2024 F1 Driver’s Championships. Another victory in Qatar followed a week later. The reigning champion knows how to win at the remaining circuits.
In pure opinion: while the current standings identify Norris and Piastri as front-runners, my read is that Max Verstappen remains the driver best placed to change the outcome. The statistics show he still produces top-level weekends; the remaining calendar still offers enough points; and when championship pressure bites, his experience tends to convert. With four races left, the man who knows how to win when it matters most still has a puncher’s chance.
